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吉魯叭特事件簿黑白講堂 - Phony Baloney - 把黑說成白，把白抹成黑
November 23 Taiwan's tech dreams This is an article excepted from one of the recent Business Week special coverages <original link>. Can't believe that Wistron indeed went for recycling, despite the huge difference in the market size estimate with my figure of $8b 2.5 yeras ago with some wild assumptions and Wistron's of $1b for now. I still doubt the likelihood of successfuly launching brands for these Taiwanese companies especially it's simply an uneasy strategic intent that requires huge monye while it's always reachable to improve margin through various operational approaches. To the best of my knowledge, not many companies made it at both strategic and operational fronts, except Samsung. Also, I'm not sure if the idea of "the business is hitting the wall" is correct or not - although one of my bosses made this comment. :)) Taiwan's New Tech Dreams As the PC business declines, Taiwan's top tech players are shifting out of low-margin businesses and into smartphones, solar-power chips, and beyond By Bruce Einhorn At the depth of the global economic crisis, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) was in trouble. With factories operating at just a fraction of capacity, Morris Chang—TSMC's silver-haired founder—laid off hundreds of staffers, ordered the remaining workers to take unpaid leave, and took other cost-cutting steps such as dimming the lights in hallways. "It was terrible," Chang says in his office on the eighth floor of "Fab 12," a vast facility that serves as TSMC's headquarters. These days, things look far better. TSMC's plants are humming again, and its Taipei-listed shares are up 41% this year. But Chang is chastened. The era of easy double-digit growth for chipmakers "isn't there anymore," he says, taking a puff on his ever-present pipe. "We need to find new areas." TSMC is stuck in a maturing industry, and its primary business of making chips for other companies is likely to grow just 8% annually in coming years. So Chang wants to boost TSMC's presence in solar power and light-emitting diodes (LEDs). The two have technological overlap with chip production, but they offer far better margins and more potential. "They are going to be fast-growth industries," Chang says. Executives across Taiwan's tech industry are making similar strategic shifts. Shi-Wei Sun, chief at chipmaker United Microelectronics (UMC), in August launched a division focusing on solar and LEDs. Peter Chou, CEO of smartphone maker HTC, is reducing his company's reliance on Microsoft Windows-based handsets, adding more phones using Google's Android operating system. And Au Optronics (AUO) is plotting a move beyond its traditional LCD displays, which require investments of billions of dollars every few years for companies to stay ahead of rivals. "Coming out of the recession, AUO is a completely different company," says C.T. Liu, chief of AUO's consumer display business. First up, he says, will be e-readers and electronic paper, newfangled displays that can be rolled or folded. Both technologies will let AUO capitalize on its display-making expertise. Why the urgent shifts? While Taiwan plays a vital role in the global tech industry, it is strongest in low-margin businesses such as PCs and components. That has created a dead end for many manufacturers, which face constant pressure from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Dell (DELL), Sony (SNE), and other big customers to cut prices. "The business model is kind of hitting the wall," says Bill Wiseman, a partner with McKinsey in Taipei. So companies are preparing for the post-PC era by diversifying into other, more mobile devices and building up their own brands. True, things aren't exactly dire for the island's tech titans. The Taiwanese benchmark index of electronics stocks is up 76% and, thanks largely to strong demand from China, orders keep coming for more chips, PCs, and other devices. Taipei has become one of Asia's most livable cities: With so much of its heavy industry now on the mainland, the air is much cleaner than in years past. And with relations between Beijing and Taipei on the mend, increasing travel and trade between the two sides will speed integration and further lift the Taiwanese economy. Taipei's Songshan Airport, for decades a sleepy terminal for short hops across the island, now buzzes as the hub of direct flights to mainland cities. Chinese authorities "are much friendlier" toward Taiwanese, says HTC Chairman Cher Wang, who recently jumped on a plane in Chengdu at noon and was back in Taipei by 3 p.m. "They feel that we're brothers who used to have a dispute but now are settling," she says. Still, as last year proved, things can turn south quickly, something many Taiwanese tech companies fully understand. So Acer, which last summer passed Dell to become the world's No. 2 PC company (behind Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)), is moving into products such as smartphones and other mobile devices. Vizio, produced by Amtran Technology—a 15-year-old company that got its start making PC monitors—is now a top-selling brand of flat-screen TVs in the U.S. And notebook maker Quanta Computer is mulling production of devices such as cameras, gaming machines, and medical sensors. "Quanta will become a brand new company from now on," vows Chairman Barry Lam. Taiwanese companies seeking to diversify might want to follow Simon Lin's lead. He is CEO of Wistron, the manufacturing arm of Acer that was spun off in 2002 when Acer decided there was no glory in being a contract manufacturer. Wistron still shares with Acer a drab office tower in the low-rent Taipei suburb of Hsichih. The neighborhood is no match for Hsinchu, the giant tech park where TSMC has its digs, but it fits with Wistron's low-key, low-cost image. The company, which had revenue of $13.5 billion last year, has already expanded far beyond PCs, making TVs and BlackBerry smartphones. More ambitious diversification is coming soon. Lin, fresh from a Taipei meeting with Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer, says the devices Wistron makes in the years ahead will have to connect to the Internet but won't necessarily be computers. Lin also wants Wistron to develop businesses such as equipment repair and recycling, which is sure to pick up as more governments mandate clean disposal of old tech gear. To that end, Wistron in October invested $8 million in a company that recycles computer motherboards. Within a few years, Lin predicts, Wistron could have a $1 billion business in tech recycling. "No one has a crystal ball to say how long [the PC business] will last," he says. "But we are not sitting here just waiting for the sunset of the PC industry." While PCs may rebound next year as the economy picks up and companies upgrade to Windows 7, they will surely be a smaller part of the tech mix as the market shifts. And the island's electronics makers will thrive in that post-PC era, says Jen-Hsun Huang, CEO of chipmaker Nvidia, who grew up in Taiwan before moving to the U.S. "If every cell phone in the world becomes a mobile computer, if every TV becomes a connected TV," he says, "holy cow!" Business Exchange: Read, save, and add content on BW's new Web 2.0 topic network Warming Trend While Beijing has long welcomed Taiwanese investment in many industries, Taipei did not reciprocate until this year. Since new regulations took effect on June 30, Taiwan's economics ministry has tallied $5.9 million worth of Chinese direct investment, Taiwan's Central News Agency reports. And that trickle may build to a steady flow if Taipei broadens the list of areas, including parts of tech, in which Chinese companies are welcome to invest. 隨便看 看來拍馬屁還是有用的。 最典型的惡霸老闆非美國漫畫《白朗黛》（Blondie）中的躊躇先生（Mr. Dithers）莫屬。他是女主角白朗黛的丈夫白大梧的頂頭上司，為人刻薄小氣，時常怒氣沖沖發飆，把部屬當出氣包。 這部漫畫刊載70逾年來，讀者對白大梧的同情仍有增無減。調查顯示，美國有37%的員工（5,400萬人）深受惡霸老闆荼毒。 為什麼這些職場暴君如此普遍？根據研究，權力並不是導致他們頤指氣使的唯一因素，權力夾雜無能感才是他們情緒失控的主因。 南加大和加州柏克萊大學兩名學者進行了一項實驗來證實上述理論。首先，他們從全美勞工資料庫中，徵求不同行業的人接受心理測驗，目的是評估他們隱藏的情緒，例如不適任感、無能感和攻擊傾向等。 同時，學者也蒐集參與者的背景資料，了解他們的職場位階與權力，以分析權力和不適任感交互作用，是否會讓老闆變得令人難以忍受。 實驗結果顯示，感到能力不足的人，只在掌權時才有虐待傾向；而有權有勢的人只在缺乏自信時，才變得刻薄與激進。這代表唯有權力和無能感結合，才會讓老闆變成討厭鬼。 為了證實這項理論，學者做了另一項模擬職場動態的實驗。他們請參與者寫下過去感到最有權力的時刻，以及工作表現最傑出和出現不適任感的經驗。學者並運用不同類型的聲音，衡量參與者對陌生人發怒的程度。 結果再次顯示，權力和不適任感交互作用，會加深一個人的虐待傾向。學者認為，這兩股力量在職場上更強化，因為掌權者會以高標準自我要求，導致不適任感更常出現。由於自尊受到威脅，他們變得充滿防衛，而這些感受通常以羞辱他人或更糟的形式表現。 要如何阻止這種循環惡化？在其他類似實驗中，學者刻意讚美某些參與者的領導才能、提高他們的自我價值。結果顯示，權力和不適任感仍是引發攻擊傾向的關鍵，但獲得讚美的人卻能排除怒氣。心理科學期刊本月也曾報導：「一點讚美就能抹除老闆的怒氣和攻擊傾向。」 這對深諳拍馬屁重要性的員工來說，一點也不令人意外。但學者警告，阿諛奉承雖能暫時增加老闆的自尊、減輕他們的虐待傾向，但最後情況可能愈變愈糟，導致無能的上司和現實脫節。10 things that mobile phones make obsoleteInteresting - 10 things that mobile phones have made or will make obsolete
November 20 How Persuasive Are You?很有趣的評論 北韓被認為是東北亞一顆不穩定的炸彈，其領導人態度也陰晴不定。不過，北韓的電視新聞卻有一股最穩定的聲音，這個聲音數十年來抨擊敵國不遺餘力、對領導當局的效忠始終不渝。這個聲音來自現年65歲、已經是阿嬤級的女主播李春姬。 北韓新聞自由受到箝制，「中央電視台」是唯一的頻道，民眾除了開關電視以外，沒有轉台的空間，李春姬（Ri Chung-hee）的地位可見一斑。 1971年北韓央視成立，原本擔任演員的李春姬進入電視台工作，也開始了她成為北韓喉舌的新聞播報生涯。北韓「朝鮮月刊」（Chosun Monthly）去年表示，北韓前領導人金日成以「溫暖的愛和信實」栽培她，讓她成為了一名慷慨激昂的新聞播報者。 報導進一步指出，「隨著日子不斷過去，她的聲音變得具有一股吸引力，當她播報新聞，觀眾無不動容，而敵人會嚇得發抖。」過去幾年，李春姬兩度播報北韓核武試爆新聞，她經常譴責南韓、日本和美國，而當她播報金日成和現任領導人金正日的活動時，言辭和語氣充滿了驕傲。研究北韓意識型態的專家表示，她就像是北韓國家宣傳機器的大祭司一般。 李春姬1943年出生，目前和丈夫、小孩和孫子住在平壤，日子過得比一般人奢華。螢光幕前，李春姬經常穿著傳統的朝鮮服裝、聲音鏗鏘有力，被認為是新聞界中最讓北韓民眾信任的人。 「朝鮮月刊」說，「李春姬拿著麥克風，有著來自領導人的加持，現在依然和她的觀眾在一起。她看起來一點都不比結婚之前老。」 一名投奔南韓的北韓人金勇（譯音）說，他聽慣了李春姬魄力十足的播報，剛到南韓時，覺得南韓主播報新聞「好像老爸老媽在家裡閒談」，有點不習慣。而且南韓主播還會吃螺絲，「要是在北韓，早就被開除了」。 November 18 手機通話費定價 這篇文章相當的有意思。昨天紐約時報有篇專欄討論手機通話費計費的模式以及定價的難度，還有消費者為何喜歡些他們永遠都用不到的功能。今天那篇文章有了續集。 Why Economists Love to Study Cellphone Pricing 其中有三點（節錄）。好像這些情況不僅存在通話費中，也可以在相當多地方發現。 That’s not the only factor here, though. Andrew M. Odlyzko, a mathematics professor at the University of Minnesota, wrote me with a very interesting paper he co-wrote in 1979 which argued that consumers often preferred flat-rate pricing to paying by usage even if it would save money. It cited data from phone companies that showed half the people who chose local phone plans with unlimited calling would have saved money choosing a pay-per-call plan. The paper listed three reasons:
華爾街日報專欄 今天華爾街日報Andrew Browne 的文章。您覺得呢？ 中國明朝宦官、艦隊指揮官鄭和在下西洋時所乘坐的木質寶船曾經是人類史上建造的最大船只﹐一些資料記載這些巨船的桅桿有九根之多﹐無疑是海上的龐然大物。 它們要比幾十年後哥倫布(Christopher Columbus)尋找新大陸所用的船只大了許多﹐在鄭和最遠到達東非海岸的七次探險中﹐這些寶船是整個船隊的旗艦。鄭和第一次下西洋時是1405年﹐當時他帶領了大約3萬人﹐第七次是在1430年。 然後鄭和的遠航戛然而止。他的多次遠行為明朝財力增加了巨大負擔。皇帝發佈了海上貿易禁令﹐並關閉了造船廠。在之後四百年時間里﹐中國的目光再未望向疆土之外。鄭和下西洋也成了充滿榮光的非常之舉。 現在﹐在21世紀剛剛開篇之際﹐整個世界都在指望著中國能擔當起自己還很陌生的全球領導者的角色。眼下美國的聲望漸趨式微﹐而中國的地位則日漸上升。 美國總統奧巴馬(Obama)本週來到中國訪問﹐以期從這個國家尋求應對從氣候變化到朝鮮核威脅等各種問題的解決之道。在二十國集團的會晤中﹐各國都在諸如銀行業改革、高管薪酬等問題上急切地尋求中國的意見。說服中國擔負起帶頭的責任將會是個挑戰。 急切的國際社會似乎萬分願意讓中國來領袖群倫﹐然而從歷史上看﹐中國卻沒有為此做好準備。 中國與美國不同﹐並無改造世界的宏願：其長久以來秉承的是不干涉別國內政的方針。即便是在毛澤東時代﹐中國也從未像前蘇聯那樣尋求世界霸權﹐雖然中國激發了亞洲其他地區以及亞洲之外的革命。如今中國在很大程度上已經不再是社會主義﹐很難界定其現在的意識形態、價值觀和世界觀為何。 不久前一群年輕的中國專業人士（其中有幾位是共產黨員）在北京一家餐館聚餐﹐有人提出了一個本應很容易回答的問題。誰能說出“三個代表”的內容？“三個代表”是中國前國家主席江澤民提出的政治理論﹐已被寫進中國憲法﹐並成為學校教學內容。沒人舉手回答這個問題。有人能說出其中兩項嗎？也沒有。一項？還是有點難度。 人們普遍認為中國在國內外的指導原則是一種極具實用主義的思想：只要能實現國內生產總值(GDP)增長就好。 西方人的到來打破了中國與世隔絕的狀態。1793年﹐英王喬治三世(George III)派馬戛爾尼勛爵(Lord Macartney)前往中國﹐遊說中國開放通商。馬戛爾尼帶了大批禮品﹐本意是想讓乾隆皇帝的朝廷上下大開眼界。禮品包括機械時鐘、計時器、望遠鏡、數學儀表等等共600箱﹐用了200匹馬、3,000名搬運工人運送。 乾隆對英王使者的答復名傳於世：天朝物產豐盈﹐無所不有﹐原不藉外夷貨物以通有無。英國以炮艦迫使中國打開了通商大門﹔衰落的中國成為西方列強瓜分的對象﹐中國稱這一時期為“百年屈辱”。 北京奧運會激發了眾多地標性建築的誕生──鳥巢國家體育場、水立方、龐大的央視新總部大樓﹐在這樣的背景之下﹐人們很容易遺忘中國在不久之前還再度處於封閉狀態。 中國共產黨於1949年起開始執政﹐此後30年的絕大部分時間﹐獲得中國簽證都是難事一樁﹐甚至經常是根本不可能的。商界人士只能每年來華一次﹐參加廣交會。在毗鄰中國內地的香港﹐旅遊大巴會將成群結隊掛著相機的美國和日本遊客送到邊境﹐看看另外一邊的“紅色中國”。偶爾前往西方的中國官員是人們好奇的對象﹐跟現在的朝鮮頗為相似。 中國一片混亂。為了深入瞭解中國的情況﹐外國情報人員秘密前往香港﹐監聽內地廣播電台。 1978年﹐鄧小平實施了改革開放政策﹐終結了毛澤東時代那種與世隔絕、人人自危的狀況──無休無止的階級鬥爭和包括世界最嚴重飢荒在內的人為災害。 開放外國貿易和投資的決策最早通過沿海經濟特區實施﹐這一決策令中國走上了經濟騰飛的道路。預計中國將很快超過日本﹐成為世界第二大經濟體。 中國的改革開放取得了諸多成就：成功地令3億人擺脫了貧困﹔對抗疾病、掃除文盲﹔大力發展科技﹐實現了載人航天。這一切給許多發展中國家提供了指引。同時個人自由也得到了空前的發展。 如今﹐隨著全球經濟步履蹣跚地從二戰以來最嚴重的衰退中復蘇﹐中國又在新的方面贏得了世界的欽羨。 在西方世界朝著金融深淵飛馳急沖之時﹐中國謹慎前行。危機過後﹐中國經濟仍強勁增長。中資銀行沒有受到有毒資產影響﹔其龐大的國民儲蓄幾乎沒有受到任何影響。今年﹐北京和上海房地產市場如火如荼。 外界也希望中國能發揮其新的戰略實力──以及其明顯的靈巧手段──協助解決當前最為緊迫的安全問題。曾擔任過卡特(Jimmy Carter)總統國家安全顧問的布熱津斯基(Zbigniew Brzezinski)提議二十國集團(G20)中的兩大強國──美國與中國──來應對伊朗和朝鮮的核威脅、巴以沖突、印巴緊張局勢以及氣候變化等問題。 奧巴馬將帶著一份看起來非常熟悉的事關地緣政治的代辦事項單抵達北京。美國的目標一直是說服中國承擔與其不斷增長經濟影響力相符的全球職責﹐鞏固而非威脅當前的國際安全。用美國前副國務卿佐立克(Robert Zoellick)的話說﹐中國應當成為一個負責任的利益相關方。 不過﹐中國官方關於“構建和諧社會”的承諾通常與在伊拉克和阿富汗發起兩起戰爭的強勢美國存在分歧。多數情況下﹐這意味著中國一直扮演著不情願的追隨者的角色﹐而不是領導者。批評人士說﹐中國在從朝鮮到伊拉克以及達爾富爾的全球問題地區的處事紀錄表明﹐中國是按照推進其經濟利益的方式承擔其職責的。 在朝鮮﹐中國一直引領著國際外交舉措﹐試圖遏制朝鮮的核計劃。中國的石油和食品使得朝鮮政權得以維持﹐但中國一直猶豫不願以此相威脅。持懷疑態度的美國人士說﹐中國之所以按兵不動﹐是因為擔心朝鮮政權崩潰不僅會使得大量難民湧入中國﹐還會導致中國直接面對美國軍事力量。 類似的中國經濟利益與國際義務之間的矛盾也在非洲上演。中國公司正在非洲大舉投資能源和原材料﹐以推動中國經濟增長。中國在從尼日利亞到埃塞俄比亞的諸多非洲國家進行了不帶附加條件的投資﹐這種做法完全不同於西方國家將投資與人權和環境改善相關聯的政策。在蘇丹﹐中國向戰火紛飛的達爾富爾地區派駐了維和人員 ﹐同時又通過購買石油和銷售武器支持蘇丹政府。 伊朗或許為中國的領導意願提供了迄今最大的考驗。美國和歐洲盟友認為﹐在核計劃上施壓伊朗方面﹐中國具有關鍵的作用。伊朗是中國第二大石油供應國﹐僅次於沙特阿拉伯。目前而言﹐中國一直反對對伊朗實施更為嚴格的制裁措施。 中國領導人將他們的宏大的權力願望藏在謙遜之中。他們說中國仍然是一個貧窮的發展中國家﹐人均國內生產總值(GDP)只有美國的十分之一。 不過﹐中國的軍隊正在迅速現代化。中國每個學童都知道慈禧太後挪用海軍軍費在北京頤和園建造石舫的故事。這個故事已經成為了國家衰弱的一個隱喻和一個武裝起來的召喚。 上個月﹐中華人民共和國建國60週年慶典的閱兵儀式向中國13億人民傳達了一條有力的信息。隆隆駛過北京長安街的洲際彈道導彈﹐空中呼嘯而過的加油機﹐這些都標志著中國不僅最終成為了一個強大國家﹐而且還能夠向海外部署力量。 這些日子﹐中國對西方“奇技淫巧”的胃口沒有界限。中國手機擁有量已經達到了6.5億部﹐中國還超過了美國成為全球最大的汽車市場。 世界上沒有哪個新興國家比中國更為熱情地把握全球貿易機遇。2001年﹐中國決定加入世界貿易組織(WTO)﹐中國經濟從此也進入了一個新軌道。對外貿易順差──尤其是對美國的──幫助中國積累了超過2萬億美元的外匯儲備。 中國現在具備了其所渴求的更高地位﹐世界似乎也同樣熱切地讓中國具有這一地位﹐那麼中國會怎麼做？ 2500 多年前﹐中國的哲學家老子曾經說過﹐治大國若烹小鮮。這一箴言是提給治理中國的士大夫的──這一階層成為了古代世界的一個治理模式。這種低干預的治理手段從未成為共產黨統治或是其治國術的標志。在當今世界﹐影響力和合法性比以往更多來自於一個國家執政理念的魅力的大背景下﹐這個問題具有極大的重要性。 上個月的法蘭克福書展向世界提供了瞭解中國內部運作的一個機會﹐成為了關於中國“軟實力”和領導能力的一個研究個案。 中國是作為主賓國受邀參加書展的。中國政府為此投入了數百萬美元﹐組織了2,000多名作家、出版商和藝術家參加這一活動。一切都運轉良好﹐直至展會組織者邀請了兩位中國持不同政見者參加書展開幕前一個名為“中國與世界──觀念與現實”的討論會。憤怒的中國官員隨即威脅要抵制這一活動﹐直到組織者收回邀請才肯罷休。 中國前駐德大使梅兆榮冷冰冰地說﹐我們不是來聽民主課的。 德國外交部一位發言人說﹐兩條原則同樣適用於法蘭克福書展。對待客人應該有待客之道﹐沒有自由的藝術是不可想象的。 Bernanke on weaker dollars 有時候我真的不解，為何這些高官說話都得如此拐彎抹角？實際上，他就是要確保失業率與美元價值的平衡，用字也太複雜了吧。 "We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to our dual mandate to foster both maximum employment and price stability". WASHINGTON —The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, warned on Monday that high unemployment and a continued reluctance of banks to make loans were likely to slow the economic recovery for the next year. And in a departure from the usual practice of Fed chairmen, Mr. Bernanke tried to reassure global investors about the recent fall in the value of the dollar by saying that the central bank was “attentive to the implications of changes” and would “continue to monitor these developments closely.” It is rare for Fed officials to comment on exchange rates, which for decades have been the responsibility of the Treasury Department. Mr. Bernanke’s message seemed to be that the Fed saw no cause for alarm in the dollar’s weakness and that it would not need to bolster the dollar by raising interest rates sooner than it would otherwise. Taken together, the Fed chairman’s comments highlighted the conflicting goals that Fed officials may have to balance. To nurture the slow recovery and bolster employment, the central bank has vowed to keep interest rates low for “an extended period,” but to prevent a precipitous drop in the value of the dollar, which could stoke inflation, the Fed would have to raise interest rates. In an otherwise gloomy speech to the Economic Club of New York, a group packed with financial executives, Mr. Bernanke played down fears that the recent jump in economic growth — to 3.5 percent in the third quarter after four quarters of contraction — was likely to sputter out as stimulus measures wind down. “My own view is that the recent pickup reflects more than purely temporary factors and that continued growth is likely,” he told the business group. But he also made it clear that worries about high unemployment still trumped concerns about inflation and that the Fed was not ready to even hint about raising its benchmark interest rate above virtually zero. Mr. Bernanke warned that banks were still reluctant to lend money, especially to small businesses that normally generate most of the new jobs. “Access to credit remains strained for borrowers who are particularly dependent on banks, such as households and small businesses,” he said. The Fed chairman also said that unemployment, now 10.2 percent, would still be “quite high” at the end of 2010. “The best thing we can say about the labor market right now is that it may be getting worse more slowly,” he said. One standard indicator of job trends — new claims for unemployment benefits — has still not fallen enough to signal a start toward net increases in monthly employment. Mr. Bernanke noted that unemployment has climbed twice as rapidly for men as for women, and that the jobless rates for young workers has soared even higher. For workers between the ages of 16 and 24, unemployment is 19 percent. For young African-Americans, unemployment is 30 percent. The Fed chairman said this recovery, like the previous two, was likely to seem like jobless rebound, in part because companies have become more reluctant to rebuild their work forces and have found new ways to increase the productivity of existing workers. In a clear retort to more hawkish Fed policymakers who have worried that inflationary pressures may be nearer than they seem, Mr. Bernanke declared the high unemployment and unused factory capacity — economic “slack,” in Fed jargon — was still too high, meaning that the economy does not face inflationary pressures yet. “Although resource slack cannot be measured precisely,” he said, “it certainly is high, and it is showing through to underlying wage and price trends,” he said. Inflation expectations, which are measured through surveys and through the premiums that investors pay for inflation-protected Treasury bonds, remain “stable,” he added. Perhaps the biggest surprise of Mr. Bernanke’s speech was his comment about exchange rates — a topic that the Federal Reserve normally avoids, because of an agreement dating back to 1951 that the Treasury had responsibility for managing the value of the dollar. But amid growing anxiety in many parts of the world about the falling value of the dollar in recent months, Mr. Bernanke not only talked about the exchange rate but added that the Fed would monitor the dollar’s value closely. At first glance, his comments suggested that he might be warning about the need to shore up the dollar by raising interest rates. But Mr. Bernanke described the dollar’s recent drop as a natural development that did not necessarily require Fed action. Mr. Bernanke said the dollar initially climbed sharply when the financial crisis was at its most acute in late 2008 and early 2009, because investors had sought safety in Treasuries. But those “safe haven flows” have since abated, he said, and the dollar had “accordingly retraced its gains.” “We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to our dual mandate to foster both maximum employment and price stability,” Mr. Bernanke said. “The Federal Reserve will continue to monitor these developments closely.” November 16 Google Wave I just got the invite to test drive this new tool. Check out this new gadget if you have time. I feel it very Outlook-like. The Complete Guide to Google Wave November 15 Chart of comparisons on unemployment rates Very interesting comparison. Looks like men are more vulnerable. :) Don't forget to click on the charts. Nytimes - Off the chart: Job losses mounts, enduring and deep Innolux and CMO decided to mergeThis is probably the biggest shockwave in Taiwanese high tech industry yesterday after CMO and Innolux announced their decision of consolidation. As usual, I remain skeptical about the synergies derived from any merger as people often underestimate the complexity of overcoming the cultural barrier, process discrepancy and political undercurrent. Digitime A day after dismissing reports that it was in talks with Innolux Display about a possible merger, Chi Mei Optoelectronics (CMO) announced that it will merge with Innolux to form Taiwan's largest LCD panel maker. Innolux is a subsidiary of Foxconn Electronics (Hon Hai Precision Industry). The merger will be done through a share exchange whereby CMO will receive one Innolux share for every 2.05 shares of CMO common stock. The merger is scheduled to be completed by May 1, 2010 and the new company will keep the Innolux name. The two companies indicated they can create synergies by integrating resources, reducing operating costs and expanding their business scale through their complementary customer bases. CMO is Taiwan's second largest LCD panel maker and and it has the fourth largest LCD panel capacity in the world. Innolux, on the other hand, excels in LCD integration and system assembly and has a superior client list, the two companies stated. Taking a closer look at the two companies strengths reveals that the key to the deal may be LCD TV panel capacity. Innolux does have LCD panel capacity but the company is a systems maker (after all, it is part of the Hon Hai Group) so its panel capacity is basically for in house production. Currently, about 90% of its panel sales come from the LCD monitor segment. Innolux is Taiwan's second largest LCD monitor maker, trailing only global leader TPV. In the third quarter of this year, Innolux shipped more than 10 million LCD monitors, and it will ship another 10 million units in the fourth quarter, according to Digitimes Research. However, although Innolux has been steadily increasing its market share for LCD monitor products, the overall market is still stagnating. Digitimes Research data indicated that the global LCD monitor market shrank by a little more than 2% in 2008 and will only grow a slight 2.2% this year. Growth will not top 4% over the next four years. Innolux has been looking to increase its presence in the LCD TV market, but with little success so far. The company will ship less than one million LCD TVs this year and it does not even rank among Taiwan's top five makers in terms of LCD TV shipments. The fact is that Innolux is not very strong in the LCD TV market and one of the main reasons for this is that it lacks capacity. The company has reportedly made plans to increase its capacity by two-thirds in 2010 and it was even said to be planning to buy LCD production equipment from CMO earlier this year. However, purchasing CMO is another way to go, especially since it involves a share swap and no money changing hands. CMO is considered one of the leading producers of LCD TV panels and based on the two LCD makers' combined capacity, Innolux should be able to achieve its goal of shipping 4-6 million LCD TVs in 2010. |
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